TTF Extends Decline on Warm Second Half of December

European gas extends the decline from recent days with the forecast of warmer weather extending further towards the end of the month. The pressure on tight supplies into Europe has eased with above normal weather for NW Europe now expected until about Dec 27 before tailing back towards normal.

• TTF JAN 23 down -4.6% at 103.6€/MWh
• TTF SUM 23 down -4.9% at 104.76€/MWh
• EU energy ministers yesterday reach an agreement on a 180€/MWh gas price cap for a year from 15 Feb onwards. The cap will be effective when prices exceed the ceiling on three consecutive days and if price are at least 35€/MWh above an LNG reference price. There is a provision to withdraw the measure if there are adverse effects from the measure.
• LNG supply is still up near record levels with total import flows to Europe just over 500mcm/d on 17 Dec. Nominations show Norwegian supply just slightly down today at 327.wmcm/d while gas transit via Ukraine is stable at 42.4mcm/d.
• European storage is down to 83.82% full as at 18 Dec with Germany at 87.61% full, Italy at 85.03%, France at 83.95% and Netherlands at 78.61.