TTF Extends Decline on Warm Weather and Returning Norway Supply

TTF front month is extending the pull back from yesterday with ongoing warm weather limiting demand and Norwegian pipeline supplies expected to further recover this week.

• TTF NOV 23 down -3.9% at 37.81€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -2% at 45.2€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -2.3% at 44€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated slightly lower than yesterday at 268.8mcm/d. Outages this week are expected to peak tomorrow before available capacity gradually increases through the week.
• European natural gas storage is up to 95.99% full on 1 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 87.56%.

• LNG sendout to Europe was relatively unchanged at 275mcm/d on 1 Oct and still well below levels around 375mcm/d seen this time last year. LNG volumes at sea continue to increase while warm weather is limiting demand.
• The latest weather forecast is still showing above normal temperatures across Europe throughout the next two weeks although with a dip slightly cooler in the next couple of days and with the risk of near normal towards the middle of October.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are steady at 42.3mcm/d today but Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are still down compared to recent levels at 57.8/d today.
• ICE TTF traded volumes yesterday increased back to 259k in line with the September average after dipping lower to 198k on 29 Sep.