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TTF Extends Gains

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month is extending gains amid fears of escalation in the Israel conflict after the US struck Iranian targets in Syria yesterday. The winter premium has eased this week as Europe is entering the winter with near-full stocks and mild weather but the 1Q24 contract is still holding a €4.175/MWh premium over the front month, highlighting the risk of potential weather shocks and supply disruptions.

    • TTF NOV 23 up 1.5% at 51.55€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 up 1.9% at 55.9€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 1.7% at 53.61€/MWh
    • TTF Q124-NOV 23 up 0.3€/MWh at 4.35€/MWh
  • TTF front month has rebounded today but remained below yesterday morning’s highs of €52.555/MWh as the market is assessing the situation in Israel.
  • Front curve fundamentals are broadly unchanged on the day. Weather forecasts have been slightly revised up with temperatures above the seasonal norm for most days until 6 November.
  • The 1Q24-Nov-23 premium has narrowed from highs of €6.57/MWh earlier this month.
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