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NATGAS: TTF Extends Rally on Supply Risk and Higher Demand

NATGAS

TTF extends gains today and heading for a net gain this week amid volatile trading as the market weighs any chances of a continuation of gas transit via Ukraine in the new year. Putin and Zelensky both ruled out the renewal of a key gas transit deal for Europe on Thursday, but Central European countries continue to seek a way to keep gas flowing.

  • Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast to hold just above normal in the coming week but potentially drift slightly below normal towards the end of the month and start of Jan. Strong wind this week is also expected to drop after Dec. 23.
  • European gas storage was 76.73% full on Dec. 18, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 79.8% as withdrawals hold just above normal.
  • NW European LNG sendout has remained relatively unchanged in recent days at 202mcm/d on Dec. 19 compared to an average of 197mcm/d since Dec. 15 but below an average of 238mcm/d in H1 Dec with supply to Asia more profitable.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are 335.0mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gasscoshows capacity reductions totalling 27.9mcm/d today falling to 7mcm/d by Dec. 25.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are at 42.2mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is 52.8mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 316k on Dec. 18.
    • TTF JAN 25 up 2.5% at 44.14€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 up 2.6% at 44.34€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 2.5% at 43.88€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 25 up 1.9% at 41.24€/MWh
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TTF extends gains today and heading for a net gain this week amid volatile trading as the market weighs any chances of a continuation of gas transit via Ukraine in the new year. Putin and Zelensky both ruled out the renewal of a key gas transit deal for Europe on Thursday, but Central European countries continue to seek a way to keep gas flowing.

  • Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast to hold just above normal in the coming week but potentially drift slightly below normal towards the end of the month and start of Jan. Strong wind this week is also expected to drop after Dec. 23.
  • European gas storage was 76.73% full on Dec. 18, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 79.8% as withdrawals hold just above normal.
  • NW European LNG sendout has remained relatively unchanged in recent days at 202mcm/d on Dec. 19 compared to an average of 197mcm/d since Dec. 15 but below an average of 238mcm/d in H1 Dec with supply to Asia more profitable.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are 335.0mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gasscoshows capacity reductions totalling 27.9mcm/d today falling to 7mcm/d by Dec. 25.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are at 42.2mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is 52.8mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 316k on Dec. 18.
    • TTF JAN 25 up 2.5% at 44.14€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 up 2.6% at 44.34€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 2.5% at 43.88€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 25 up 1.9% at 41.24€/MWh