TTF Falls Amid Warm Weather and Norway Supply Recovery

TTF is trading lower with an extension of the warm forecast and with the recovery in Norwegian pipeline supplies to offset geopolitical risks.

• TTF MAR 24 down -2% at 27.25€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -1.6% at 27.75€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 down -1.3% at 31.44€/MWh
• TTF SUM 25 down -0.8% at 29.05€/MWh
• Earlier comments by Israeli PM Netanyahu, appeared to pour cold water on a ceasefire, telling reporters that Israel "will not suffice with less" than a decisive victory in their war against Hamas.
• The temperature forecast for Europe remains mild with forecasts for next week shifting slightly warmer. NW and central Europe are expected above normal until around Feb 18.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated back up to 342.9mcm/d following the return of capacity at Troll from an unplanned outage this week.
• European natural gas storage at 67.87% full on Feb 7 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 53.9%. Net withdrawal rates have increased during the week but remain below the five year average for the time of year.
• European LNG sendout was up again to 361mcm/d on Feb 7 but still below the average of 379mcm/d seen during January.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today at 42.0mcm/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was up at 320k yesterday.