TTF Falls Further as EU Plans for Tight Winter

European gas falls further as EU members step up efforts to try to avoid supply shortages this winter.

• TTF OCT 22 down -4.8% at 173.5€/MWh
• Efforts to reduce demand and EU emergency intervention plans have combined with new LNG terminals and supply and ever increasing storage levels to bring TTF back down from the peak seen in August. Concerns remain that any further disruption to the remaining Russian supply through Ukraine or a cold winter could drive then market balance even tighter over the winter.
• Supply through Ukraine is unchanged at 42.4mcm/d but was flowing near 108mcm/d at the start of the year before the halt to flows through Sokhranivka after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
• Norwegian supplies are slowly returning from maintenance with nominations today up to 277mcm/d from a low of 230mcm/d on Sep 9. Most field maintenance is expected to end between now and the end of the month.
• LNG supplies have recovered in recent days with the return of Zeebrugge LNG from an outage although Montoir LNG remains at reduced capacity until Sep 30.
• European storage is now up to 86% full compared to the 5 year average of 84% at this time of year.