TTF Falls Further as Low Demand Eases Supply Pressure

The decline in European gas markets continues with above normal temperatures and comfortable supplies. TTF gas has now fallen 64% since early December as warm weather has combined with EU measures to reduce consumption to ease tight winter supply concerns.

• TTF FEB 23 down -4.2% at 52.5€/MWh
• TTF SUM 23 down -3.4% at 55€/MWh
• European storage levels are up at 74.81% compared to the five year average of 55.7% with stock levels now likely to end of season much higher than previously expected.
• Strong LNG imports and increasing European regas capacity are helping to limit upside pressure. LNG sendout was high at 478mcm/d on 24 Jan but is still below the peak supplies seen in early December. The potential return of the Freeport LNG later in Q1 should help US supplies to Europe.
• Norwegian supplies are still slightly reduced due to planned field maintenance. Output is nominated at 310.8mcm/d today compared to around 338mcm/d at the star of the month. Most maintenance will be completed this month, but Gullfaks has a small capacity reduction expected until 6 Feb.
• The recent cold spell for NW Europe is coming to an end with temperatures expected to move back above normal over the weekend and bring with it higher wind power generation next week.