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TTF Finding Support With LNG Supply and Fuel Switching Risks

NATURAL GAS

TTF finding some support today with upside risks coming from a potential increase in competition for LNG from Asia this summer and into next winter and with the potential for increased gas demand from fuel switching.

  • Lower LNG spot prices down into the 13$/mmbtu range have attracted the interest of several price sensitive Asian nations and some small importers in China but the increased demand has so far not been enough to raise prices. Front month JKM is down to the lowest since Jul 2021 at 14.25$/mmbtu.
  • The falling European gas prices have brought the level down to the coal to gas switching range and the potential for increased gas fired generation if TTF stays weak relative to coal and EUA prices.
    • TTF APR 23 up 2.6% at 43.24€/MWh
    • NBP APR 23 up 2.7% at 108.49p/th
    • JKM Apr 23 down -0.5% at 14.25$/mmbtu
    • JKM-TTF Apr 23 down -0.1$/mmbtu at 0.86$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas APR 23 up 1.8% at 2.62$/mmbtu

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