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TTF Front Month Holds At Highest Since April

NATURAL GAS

TTF markets are maintaining gains supported by a combination of Middle East tensions, the Baltic pipeline leak, planned Australia LNG facility strikes and cooler European weather next week. Front month is trading at the highest since early April while Q1 2024 has regained losses from late last month back to mid September levels.

  • The front month rally has driven the Q1 2024 -Nov 2023 spread down from over 7€/MWh on Friday back to around 4€/MWh today and the lowest since mid August.
  • The winter 24 contract premium over the current winter is also trading lower with the Q1 2025 -Q1 2024 spread falling from around 4€/MWh last week to 2.75€/MWh.
  • Uncertainly around the ongoing conflict in Israel and the duration of this gas production disruption from the Tamar field is driving European gas price risks skewed to the upside according to Goldman Sachs.
  • The TTF front month 30 day historical has increase back to 96.4% after dipping to 90.6% last week.
    • TTF NOV 23 up 5.3% at 46.29€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 up 2.7% at 50.45€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 2.5% at 48.66€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 1.9% at 52.2€/MWh

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