TTF Gains Amid LNG Risks as Pipeline Supply Set to Recover

TTF opens higher but is still below the highs from Friday as Norwegian supplies are expected to gradually start returning from this week but with ongoing concern for global LNG supplies from strikes at facilities in Australia.

• TTF OCT 23 up 3.9% at 35.87€/MWh
• Chevron is applying to the Fair Work Commission for intractable bargaining declarations for the Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG facilities to help resolve the dispute with workers unions. Stoppages started last week of up to 11 hours per day until 13 Sep before increasing to 24-hour stoppages from 14 Sep.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are at 145mcm/d today after extensions to key capacity reductions due to maintenance. The main outage at Troll is set to end tomorrow with flows gradually returning during this week. The works schedules at Kollsnes, Aasta Hansteen and Ormen Lange have all been adjusted over the weekend.
• LNG sendout to Europe has averaged around 330mcm/d in the week to 9 Sep with flows to NW Europe still just below last year levels.
• European natural gas storage was at 93.68% full on a 9 Sep according to GIE data compared to the five year average for this time of year of 83.1% amid slow injection rates.
• Temperatures across Europe are expected to remain above normal for the coming week before drifting slightly cooler in the second week of the outlook back towards normal.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 41.5mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are today down at 55.1 mcm/d.