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TTF Higher on Supply and Cooler Weather Concerns

NATURAL GAS

Concern for the remaining Russian gas flow to Europe and potential cooler weather into December is supporting TTF prices

  • Gazprom said that the volume of gas supplied for transit to Moldova via Ukraine exceeds the volume transmitted at the Ukraine-Moldova border. They warn if this transit imbalance maintains, it will start to reduce gas supply to Ukraine on Nov 28th. The Ukraine gas TSO said Ukraine delivered the entire volume of Moldova bound gas.
  • Despite EU efforts to reduce demand and increase LNG import capacity, supplies are expected to remain tight next year. Many recent reports, including from IEA, are expecting a struggle to restock storage next summer without Russian gas that was available during summer 2022.
    • TTF DEC 22 up 2.5% at 119.08€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 23 up 2.7% at 126.91€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 up 3.6% at 127€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 1.1% at 92€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 1.3% at 89.75€/MWh

Source: Bloomberg

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