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TTF Higher with Supply Concerns from US and Russia

NATURAL GAS

Freeport LNG announced an extended outage period with partial return in approximately 90 days and full operation not expected until late 2022. In reaction US gas has fallen 16% and TTF rose 11%. US gas now up 0.8% today to 7.245$/mmbtu and TTF up 4.2% to 101.1€/MWh.

  • TTF was already trading higher due to reduced supply through Nord Stream with reports that flows will be limited to just 100mcm/d. The lower supply is due to delays to repairs following maintenance. Current nominations for today show flows of 94.65mcm/d.
  • Russian supply through Ukraine is unchanged at 41.9mcm/d and Norwegian supply is gradually returning from maintenance at 317mcm/d.
  • With potentially lower European LNG supply due to the US terminal outage there are concerns regarding the speed storage levels can be restocked ahead of next winter. European gas storage has been filling quickly and is now up to 52.6% full.
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