TTF Holding Near Lows With Strong LNG Supplies

Front month TTF has opened lower today but still holding just above the lows of around 37.9€/MWh seen over the last week, Upside moves are limited by mixed weather and strong LNG imports and despite ongoing Norwegian maintenance.

• TTF JUN 23 down -0.7% at 38.55€/MWh
• LNG supplies to Europe remain strong at nearly 480mcm/d on 30 April amid ongoing maintenance at Norwegian fields with muted LNG demand and competition from Asia. Net European LNG import flows averaged about 468mcm/d in April up from 416mcm/d in March as spreads favour US supplies to Europe over Asia.
• Norwegian imports are today at 289.30mcm/d with outages scheduled to continue into mid May. Current outages are impacting output from Troll, Gullfaks, Karsto and Kollsnes.
• Temperatures in northwest Europe are expected to move from the current below normal to above normal over the coming weekend and into next week. Temperatures in central Europe will remain below normal while warm weather continues in the Mediterranean.
• European gas storage remains healthy at 59.6% on 30 Apr according to GIE data with net injections now near normal after a slow start to the refill season. The five year average for this time of year is 40.05% full.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today at 39.8mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 74.4mcm/d.