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TTF Holding Within 3€/MWh Range Amid Middle East Uncertainty

NATURAL GAS

TTF is bouncing in the 26.5€/MWh to 29.4€/MWh range since Jan 17 with warm weather and high storage set against risks of the escalation of Middle East tensions.

    • TTF FEB 24 down -1.9% at 27.65€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -1.5% at 28.66€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -1.3% at 33.5€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down -1.4% at 30.66€/MWh
  • Markets are waiting for the US response following the attack on its troops stationed in Jordan over the weekend while negotiators are working on a “three-phase” ceasefire between Israel and Hamas including the release of hostages.
  • European temperature forecasts remain relatively unchanged. NW and central Europe are expected to see above normal temperatures in the coming week before easing back to near normal in the second week of the outlook.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated slightly lower on the day at 345.9mcm/d today.
  • European natural gas storage was 71.54% full on Jan 28 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 58.7% with below normal net withdrawal rates since Jan 20.
  • European LNG sendout was down to the lowest since mid October at 301mcm/d on Jan 28 compared to an average of around 381mcm/d so far in Jan.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are today at the highest since Dec at 54.7mcm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume eased back to 271k yesterday.
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