TTF Holds Gains From Yesterday With Temperatures Warming into July

European TTF front month gas is holding near previous close levels after volatility trading saw a spike up to over 36.9€/MWh yesterday. A drop in LNG imports this month, reduced pipeline supplies from Norway amid maintenance and warm weather returning to Europe are adding to upside price risks.

• TTF JUL 23 up 0.9% at 34.83€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 1.3% at 51.12€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 1.5% at 50.57€/MWh
• Pipeline imports from Norway are today at 232.9mcm/d amid ongoing field and processing plants outages. The impact of the outage at Kollsnes on 29 June until 3 July was yesterday increased from 11mcm/day to 39mcm/day with a new outage of 11mcm/d for 3-4 July, according to Gassco.
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast cooler in the coming few days back to near normal before warming again during the first week of July.
• European LNG imports have fallen from over 400mcm/d earlier in June to around 360mcm/d this week according to Bloomberg with a slump in LNG arrivals into UK this month. Maintenance works are reducing sendout from Montoir LNG and Fos Tonkin LNG until 2 July and with a reduced service at Dunkerque LNG on 29 July.
• Total European storage levels were up to 76.42% full on 26 June according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 60.3% with injection rates 27% below normal in the last week.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today at 41.7mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 66.6mcm/d.