TTF Holds Steady After Decline on Easing Supply Risk

Front month TTF is trading within yesterday’s range after a decline at the start of the week suggesting a reduction in import supply risks as fundamentals remain relatively unchanged.

• Temperatures in NW Europe remain cool this week but are expected to gradually recover back above normal from early next week. Current heat in the south is expected to persist over the coming two weeks.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 334.4mcm/d with Gassco showing 26mcm/d of capacity reductions this week falling to 16mcm/d next week.
• European LNG sendout was at 259mcm/d on June 29 according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 246mcm/d in June and 325mcm/d in the first week of July 2023.
• Total European stores are up to 77.62% full on July 1 according to GIE compared to the five year average of 67.6%. Net injections rates last week averaged just 6.9% below normal.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are still low at 47cm/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was at 241k on July 2.
  • TTF AUG 24 down 0.8% at 33.41€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 down 0.4% at 38.92€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 25 down 0.3% at 37.08€/MWh