TTF Jumps on Cooler Weather Forecast for NW Europe

The Europe gas market jumps in early trading after the weather forecast for NW Europe turns colder in week two. The current warm weather is forecast to give way to below normal temperatures from around 7 Feb.

• TTF MAR 23 up 8.4% at 59.75€/MWh
• TTF SUM 23 up 7.9% at 61.5€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 6.4% at 70€/MWh
• Lower than expected demand has eased tight supply concern this winter but cold weather and competition from Asia for LNG supplies are upside risks.
• European storage levels are likely to end the season much higher than originally expected but extended cold could bring about higher withdrawals. Total EU storage was at 73.23% on 29 Jan compared to the seasonal normal of 53.5%.
• LNG import flows reduced over the last week from 479mcm/d on 23 Jan down to 414mcm/d on 28 Jan.
• Norwegian supplies are relatively unchanged from yesterday at 322.8mcm/d with small outages restricting output slightly. Ukraine transit gas flows are also steady at 24.5mcm/d.