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TTF March Still Trading Below Summer Amid High Storage Levels

NATURAL GAS

Bearish near term fundamentals continue to weigh on TTF time spreads with end of heating season storage levels expected to finish well above the previous five year average of around 41.5%.

  • ICIS forecasts Europe’s gas inventories to be at 55% of capacity as of 1 April. BNEF forecasts gas inventories in NW Europe, Austria and Italy to end the heating season at 51% of capacity by the end of March. Berenberg expects stocks to end the heating season in early April at around 53% of capacity.
  • Based on the withdrawal rates from the last ten years from now until the end of March EU storage levels would fall to between 41.2% and 61.8% full at the end of the heating season.
  • Front month TTF is easing back today as mild weather and forecasts for high wind output weigh on gas demand expectations, and with below-normal storage withdrawals. Supply risks due to Red Sea tanker diversions have been supportive this week.
  • The Mar 2024 contract is still trading below Sum 24 contract with the spread today around -0.915€/MWh. The Sum24-Sum25 spread has narrowed from about -5.175€/MWh last week up to around -4.5€/MWh today.
  • The Sum 24 – Win 24 spread has narrowed from around -5.2€/MWh last week to -4.45€/MWh. TTF FEB 24 up 2.4% at 28.75€/MWh.
    • TTF MAR 24 down -3.9% at 29.05€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -2.7% at 29.92€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -1.7% at 34.51€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down -0.8% at 31.98€/MWh
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