Free Trial

TTF Near Normal With Warm Weather Balanced Against Supply Risks

NATURAL GAS

TTF is back near to the previous close levels after opening higher on concern that the second half of January could see temperatures drifting back toward more normal levels and with gas spreads risking the LNG supplies into Europe. The weather forecasts are still not showing any sign of below normal temperatures.

  • The JKM-TTF spread is back up to 6.5$/mmbtu today after dipping down to 4.25$/mmbtu on Friday. The US netback to Europe for February is down to 16.69$/mmbtu compared to 22.82$/mmbtu to Asia.
  • The US netbacks for March are now at parity with the potential profitability of US LNG exports to Europe the same as to Asia. Spreads beyond March are still slightly favouring flows to Europe.
  • LNG supplies into NW Europe were back up to 271mcm/d on 4 Jan having fallen to 219mcm/d at the end of the year. Record levels of 336mcm/d were seem during the cold weather early in December.
    • TTF FEB 23 down 0% at 69.53€/MWh
    • NBP FEB 23 up 0.3% at 170.52p/th
    • JKM Feb 23 up 1.6% at 28.45$/mmbtu
    • JKM-TTF Feb 23 up 0.2$/mmbtu at 6.5$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas FEB 23 up 5.1% at 3.9$/mmbtu


Source: MNI / Bloomberg

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.