TTF Open Interest Strong with High Weekly Traded Volume on Norway Outage

ICE Endex TTF aggregate open interest is holding just below the high from late May amid high trading volumes due to the disruption to Norwegian pipeline gas supply to Europe this week.

• Open interest reached the highest since October 2021 at 1.991m on May 30 and was yesterday still strong at 1.958m. ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was at 283k on June 6 having risen as high as 532k on June 3.
• TTF second month implied volatility is back down towards the lows from mid March at 58% today after a jump higher to 67.1% earlier this week.
• TTF front month futures look set for a net decline on the week and have fallen to levels seen on May 21 with the recovery in Norwegian pipeline supplies and cool temperatures across Europe next week.
• LNG supply risks are however still supportive of TTF markets with strong recent buying from Southern Asia driven by hot weather and with US netbacks still more profitable to Asia over Europe.
• However, Chinese demand will likely slow over the summer as higher prices deter imports, according to Rystad Energy cited by Bloomberg.
  • TTF JUL 24 down 1.7% at 33.13€/MWh