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TTF Opens Lower After 13€/MWh Rally Since Friday

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month opens slightly lower today after seeing a 13€/MWh rally in the last couple of days due to Middle East tensions potentially impacting Egypt LNG exports, the potential sabotage of the Baltic pipeline, planned Australia LNG facility strikes and cooler European weather next week.

    • TTF NOV 23 down -3% at 47.99€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 down -2.7% at 52.12€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -2.6% at 50€/MWh
  • The latest weather forecast shows above normal temperatures in NW and central Europe this week falling down slightly below normal from the middle of the month. Most of Europe is more likely than not to be warmer than average this winter according to the seasonal update from Copernicus yesterday.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 305.5mcm/d as supplies continue to slowly recover from seasonal maintenance. Total outages are expected to decline to just 16.5mcm/d by 16 Oct according to Gassco.
  • Near normal injection rates in the last week have helped European natural gas storage levels back up towards the five year range highs at 97.09% full on 9 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 88.79%.
  • LNG sendout to Europe is estimated up at 350mcm/d on 10 Oct according to Bloomberg compared to 267mcm/d the previous day.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are today estimated at 53.6mcm/d today.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes were again high yesterday up at 441k contracts compared to 330k the day before.

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