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NATGAS: TTF Pulls Back After Rally to €54.8/MWh

NATGAS
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TTF front month is back near previous close levels after an initial rally to the highest since Oct. 2023 at €54.8/MWh as oil prices rose in reaction to US trade tariffs.  US President Trump again threatened the EU with tariffs. Concerns for low storage and cool temperatures in early Feb are supporting prices.

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast near normal in the coming days although could dip below normal towards the weekend and into next week. A slight pick up in wind generation from the current low levels is expected.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are still slightly below normal today nominated at 326.2mcm/d, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows capacity reductions totalling 10.85mcm/d this week until Feb. 9.
  • European gas storage has fallen to 53.11% full on Feb. 1, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 60.1%. Net withdrawal rates increased late last week back to near normal levels for the time of year.
  • European LNG sendout has risen back up to 374mcm/d on Feb. 1 compared to an average of 351mcm/d over the previous week and around 360mcm/d this time last year.
  • Algeria gas flows to Italy at Mazara are today at 60.9mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 455k on Jan. 31.
    • TTF MAR 25 down 0.4% at 53.05€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.9% at 52.49€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 25 down 0.1% at 46.75€/MWh
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TTF front month is back near previous close levels after an initial rally to the highest since Oct. 2023 at €54.8/MWh as oil prices rose in reaction to US trade tariffs.  US President Trump again threatened the EU with tariffs. Concerns for low storage and cool temperatures in early Feb are supporting prices.

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast near normal in the coming days although could dip below normal towards the weekend and into next week. A slight pick up in wind generation from the current low levels is expected.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are still slightly below normal today nominated at 326.2mcm/d, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows capacity reductions totalling 10.85mcm/d this week until Feb. 9.
  • European gas storage has fallen to 53.11% full on Feb. 1, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 60.1%. Net withdrawal rates increased late last week back to near normal levels for the time of year.
  • European LNG sendout has risen back up to 374mcm/d on Feb. 1 compared to an average of 351mcm/d over the previous week and around 360mcm/d this time last year.
  • Algeria gas flows to Italy at Mazara are today at 60.9mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 455k on Jan. 31.
    • TTF MAR 25 down 0.4% at 53.05€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.9% at 52.49€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 25 down 0.1% at 46.75€/MWh