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TTF Pulls Back on Expected Norway Return and Mild Weather

NATURAL GAS

TTF extends the downward correction today to reverse most of the gains seen yesterday and back towards 40€/MWh.

  • The expected end of a 25mcm/d unplanned outage at Troll on Wednesday is adding to downside pressure from low European demand and healthy storage levels up to nearly 95%. LNG demand from Asia also remains relatively muted with weather forecasts in both Europe and Asia not showing any sign of a cold start to the winter heating season.
  • The easing risk of a tight market at the start of the winter season has helped the front month spread to winter to continue to close. Q1 2024 - Oct23 is down from about 16.5€/MWh at the start of last week to 9€/MWh today. The spread has gained slightly today as the front month has pulled back sharply.
  • The Win24-Win23 has regained ground today from about 3.9$/bbl to 5.25€/MWh with the market to remain relatively tight until new LNG supplies come online in late 2025 and beyond.
    • TTF OCT 23 down -9.4% at 40.28€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 down -7.1% at 46.4€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -5.3% at 47.71€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -4.2% at 51.61€/MWh
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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