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TTF Rallies Amid Rising Shipping Risks from Houthi Attacks

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month has rallied with support from rising risks to shipping offsetting the warm weather in December, strong wind power output in Germany and healthy near term supplies. The market remains sensitive to risks from cold weather and unexpected supply disruptions.

  • BP is the latest firm to pause all of its tanker traffic through the Red Sea following an increase in Houthi attacks on vessels in recent days, the firm said, cited by Bloomberg.
  • The Q1 2024 – Sum 24 spread is trading down at parity reflecting the confidence in Europe supplies and storage levels for the remainder of this winter. The TTF curve is relatively flat until the end of the summer with Q124-Sum24 today at 0.1€/MWh after reaching a low of -0.07€/MWh on Friday.
  • The Q1 2024 – Q1 2025 spread is down again to a low of -6.4€/MWh while the near term downside pressure has helped push the Sum24-Sum25 spread to a low of nearly -1.4€/MWh.
  • Less summer injection demand is driving Sum 24 below Sum 25 with storage levels expected to be relatively high by the end of winter according to ICIS.
  • High end of winter storage above 60% full could lead to an extremely volatile summer with the market preference for a steady call on LNG imports according to JP Morgan.
    • TTF JAN 24 up 6.2% at 35.26€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 up 5.3% at 35.26€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 4.9% at 35.2€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 2.8% at 40€/MWh
Energy BulletsCommodities
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