TTF Rallies As Suspected Baltic Pipe Leak Adds to Supply Risks

TTF front month gains with support from a suspected leak in the undersea Baltic pipeline between Finland and Estonia after a drop in pressure and with rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions. Supply disruptions remain a risk heading into the winter heating season with the potential for a restart to Australia LNG facility worker strikes despite recent low demand and high storage.

• TTF NOV 23 up 5.2% at 40.2€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 2.2% at 46.15€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 2.1% at 45€/MWh
• The latest weather forecast shows temperatures across NW Europe holding above normal this week before cooling from the middle of the month back to near normal.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 289.3mcm/d but expected to increase this week with the easing of field outages including at Ormen Lange and Troll. Total outages are around 67mcm/d today and expected to decline to 16.5mcm/d by 16 Oct according to Gassco.
• European natural gas storage levels are gaining back towards the five year range highs up to 96.87% full on 7 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 88.5%.
• LNG sendout to Europe is today estimated at 277mcm/d compared to an average of around 300mcm/d over the last week.

• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 40.1mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are down at 46.7mcm/d today after falling as low as 32.3mcm/d over the weekend.
• ICE TTF aggregate traded volumes on Friday were below the recent average at 194k contracts.