TTF Regains Earlier Losses with Ongoing Supply Risks

Front month TTF briefly regained earlier losses back to flat on the day before easing lower again as global supply risks from disrupted LNG supplies from Egypt and Australia are balanced with high storage and low demand.

• The first LNG cargo arrived at Finland’s Inkoo terminal on Tuesday following the blast of the Balticconnector pipeline earlier this month. LNG imports terminals ensure Finland has enough gas import capacity to cover peak winter demand.
• High feedgas supplies to US LNG export terminals could help to ease some global supply concerns while LNG volume waiting at sea remain above the five year range despite holding steady this week.
• Future seasons are moving in line with the front month today to maintain time spread levels. The Q1 2024 -Nov 2023 spread is relatively steady today after bouncing back up to nearly 6€/MWh yesterday. The winter 24 contract premium over the current winter has recovered with Q1 2025- Q1 2024 up to 1.85€/MWh from around 0.7€/MWh on 13 Oct.
  • TTF NOV 23 down -0.4% at 48.28€/MWh
  • TTF Q1 24 down -0.8% at 53.6€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 24 down -0.6% at 51.85€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 up 0.1% at 55.14€/MWh