TTF Resumes Downward Trend

European TTF natural gas has resume the trend lower after tentative support earlier this week. Prices were supported by a cool month ahead ECMWF forecast until mid April although the two week forecast is showing temperatures in NW Europe back to or above normal next week.

• TTF APR 23 down -3.2% at 41€/MWh
• TTF SUM 23 down -2.7% at 42€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -2.8% at 49.18€/MWh
• Storage levels are on track to end the heating season well above normal around 55% full despite slightly higher than normal storage withdrawals during the current cooler spell. Total European storage was at the top of the five year range at 57.78% full on 7 March.
• LNG imports to Europe fell to 441mcm/d on 6 March driven by lower imports to NW Europe which were down from 355mcm/d on 28 Feb to 244 mcm/d. Disruption at French LNG terminals due to industrial action has caused LNG tankers to divert away from France to elsewhere in the region. Upside risks come from a potential increase in competition for LNG from Asia this summer and into next winter. Increased buyer interest boosted by lower prices has so far not been enough to raise prices.
• Norwegian supplies are today nominated up to 320.1mcm/d but still below recent levels due to planned field outages this week.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today nominated at 42.4mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is up to 69.6mcm/d.