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TTF Reverse Earlier Losses Back Positive on the Day

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month has reversed earlier losses back positive on the day but still below the recent peak of 56.1€/MWh which was driven by concern for lower supply due to the conflict in Israel.

  • The main winter upside risk as still from higher demand due to cold weather in Europe and Asia despite bearish near term fundamentals in Europe due to the early season warm weather. A recovery in demand in China and unexpected supply outages also skew risks to the upside. The Q1 2024 TTF contract is maintaining a premium over the front month although is back at around 5Є/MWh today compared to around 7€/MWh yesterday.
  • European supplies are largely expected to remain tight beyond this current winter season with limited new global LNG supplies due online in 2024. The Q1 2025 -Q1 2024 spread is trading at around 1.35€/MWh today.
    • TTF NOV 23 up 1.9% at 52.24€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 up 0.2% at 57.8€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 0.6% at 55.84€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 0.1% at 58.25€/MWh

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