TTF Rises as LNG and Storage Supplies Increase on Cold Weather

TTF edges higher with support from cold weather this week as LNG sendout and storage withdrawals increase to cover the higher heating demand. Middle East tensions remain an upside risk with one of the largest Houthi missile and drone attacks to date in the Red Sea reported.

• TTF FEB 24 up 2.3% at 31.34€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 2.4% at 31.46€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 up 2% at 36€/MWh
• Below normal temperatures are expected in NW and central Europe this week but are expected to return to near normal in the second half of January.
• European natural gas storage was down to 83.48% full on Jan 8 according to GIE data after above normal withdrawals on the day driven by the cold weather. Storage remains well above the seasonal five year average of 70.9%.
• Net European LNG import sendout rose to the highest since Dec 19 at 427mcm/d on Jan 8 driven by an increase in flows from NW Europe and Iberia according to Bloomberg.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are down slightly to 347.6mcm/d today compared to the average of 351mcm/d so far this year.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 47.8mcm/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes up to 275k yesterday.