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MNI RBA Preview-November 2024: On Hold But Still “Vigilant”?

The RBA is unanimously expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.35% at its meeting on November 5.
Central Bank PreviewRBA - PreviewAPACAustraliaCentral Bank ReportsGlobalStoryRegionMarkets

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

  • The RBA is unanimously expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.35% at its meeting on November 5, which will include updated staff forecasts. 
  • With an unchanged outcome widely projected, the statement will be scrutinised for any changes in thinking. We expect the Board to reiterate that it isn't “ruling anything in or out” but it may tone down or even remove that it is “vigilant to upside risks to inflation”.
  • Q4 2024 inflation may be revised lower but the outer years are likely to be little changed. There could be a near-term downward revision to the unemployment rate but also to growth.
  • Not only is the RBA likely to be on hold on November 5 but it will probably again state its data dependency and signal that it is too early to discuss rate cuts let alone ease before year end. Underlying inflation remains above the top of the target band and gradual easing of the labour market appears to have stalled.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: RBA Preview - November 2024.pdf

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

  • The RBA is unanimously expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.35% at its meeting on November 5, which will include updated staff forecasts. 
  • With an unchanged outcome widely projected, the statement will be scrutinised for any changes in thinking. We expect the Board to reiterate that it isn't “ruling anything in or out” but it may tone down or even remove that it is “vigilant to upside risks to inflation”.
  • Q4 2024 inflation may be revised lower but the outer years are likely to be little changed. There could be a near-term downward revision to the unemployment rate but also to growth.
  • Not only is the RBA likely to be on hold on November 5 but it will probably again state its data dependency and signal that it is too early to discuss rate cuts let alone ease before year end. Underlying inflation remains above the top of the target band and gradual easing of the labour market appears to have stalled.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: RBA Preview - November 2024.pdf