TTF Steadies With Summer Upside Limited by Muted Demand

TTF is steady today after following the wider energy market recovery higher yesterday. Global prices are still holding the bearish trend from this year with high storage inventory levels reducing the demand to restock over the summer. Low demand and use of alternative fuels are also adding to the downside pressure.

• TTF JUN 23 up 0.1% at 36.92€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -0.1% at 55.19€/MWh
• Warm weather over the summer months and cold in the winter are upside risks to prices with potential for rising demand in Asia and the Middle East helping to keep the global market tight.
• LNG net import flows to Europe continue to drift off from the high levels seen at the end of April amid ongoing Norway seasonal maintenance but with muted demand. Total European sendout was down to just below 410mcm/d on 7 May.
• Norwegian imports are today at 292.2mcm/d with ongoing seasonal maintenance at several field and processing plant facilities with some reductions at Troll expected to continue into June.
• The weather forecast for NW Europe is mixed with temperatures hovering either side of normal in the coming two weeks. Temperatures in central Europe are expected to remain slightly below normal.
• European gas storage is up to 61.76% on 7 May according to GIE data compared to the five year average for this time of year is 42.2% full with near normal injection rates over the last week.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today lower at 32.9mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are steady at 64.2mcm/d.