TTF Steady With Temperatures Back Near Normal Next Week

TTF front month is holding near the lowest since early Sep 2021 as the warm weather in NW Europe is forecast to drift back to near normal next week.

• TTF MAR 23 up 0.6% at 52€/MWh
• The front remains weaker than future seasons with ongoing concern for Sum23 and Win23 supplies providing support. Competition for LNG supplies from Asia could increase later this year with a potential demand recovery in China. Global LNG supplies are not forecast to increase significantly until late 2024 and beyond.
• The above normal temperatures in NW Europe this week have taken further pressure off winter European LNG imports supplies. Lower demand has led to a drop in EU LNG sendout from 481mcm/d early last week to 422mcm/d on 11 Feb. Europe's LNG imports are expected to drop to 10.49m tonnes in February, down from 12.49m in January and a record high of 13.44m in December according to Kpler data.
• Norwegian supplies are relatively unchanged today at 333.5mcm/d and Russian gas supplies flowing through Ukraine are unchanged at 30.8mcm/d.
• European gas in storage is at 66.13% according to GIE data from 12 Feb compared to the five year average of 46.17%. Germany is at 72.86% full, Italy at 65.90%, France at 53.44% and Netherlands at 64.84%.