TTF Supported by Ongoing LNG Strike Risk and Norway Outages

Optimism that Australian LNG strikes could be averted has driven a pull back in TTF front month from a peak of 44.8€/MWh earlier this week to a low of 29.6€/MWh yesterday. TTF has since rallied slightly as some strike risk remains and with lower supplies to Europe due to the start of seasonal Norwegian maintenance.

• TTF SEP 23 up 1.2% at 32.32€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 1.4% at 47.97€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 0.9% at 49.85€/MWh
• The Offshore Alliance members have endorsed an in principle deal with Woodside but a union ballot of Chevron workers yesterday voted in favour of industrial action if needed. A second ballot of workers at Chevron’s Wheatstone platform will be finalized on 28 August.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated down to 217.2mcm/d with the start of seasonal field and processing plant maintenance. The main outages are expected to last for the next ten days before seeing a gradual reduction in outages throughout September.
• LNG sendout to Europe was back up to at 320mcm/d on 23 Aug after dropping as low as 260mcm/d last weekend. Import flows to NW Europe remain below levels seen this time last year.
• European gas storage is up to 91.86% full on a 23 Aug according to GIE data compared to the five year average for this time of year of 78.85%.
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are expected the fall back to near normal over this weekend before returning slightly above into the start of September.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are unchanged at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 64.2mcm/d.