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TTF Surges to New Weekly High

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month is extending today’s rally up through the highs from yesterday boosted by European gas supply risks. Upside is driven by geopolitical tensions, the Baltic pipeline leak and Australia LNG strikes with mediation talks extended to Friday. The move is also supported by cooling temperatures across much of Europe back below normal over the coming weekend.

  • The front month rally is again driving the Q1 2024 -Nov 2023 spread lower down to around 3.5€/MWh today and towards the lowest since June seen on 10 Oct.
  • The winter 24 contract premium over the current winter is also trading lower with the Q1 2025 -Q1 2024 spread today at around 1.75€/MWh.
  • The TTF front month 30 day historical has increase back to 107.4% after dipping to 90.6% earlier in October.
    • TTF NOV 23 up 11.1% at 51.2€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 up 7.5% at 54.66€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 7% at 52.84€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 5% at 55.76€/MWh


Source: Bloomberg

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