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TTF Win24 Premium Over Win23 Rises on Future Tight Supply Concern

NATURAL GAS

The premium of Win 24 over Win 23 TTF has risen this month up from just 1.2€/MWh at the start of July to a high of 6.6€/MWh today.

  • The move suggests a growing relative confidence of security of natural gas supply for the upcoming winter compared to the following year.
  • The risk of cold weather over the winter months and competition for LNG supplies from a recovery in Asia are both still upside risks for winter 23 and could pressure end of heating season storage inventory levels. The Q1 24 – August 23 spread has regained ground in the last couple of days back up to 24.25€/MWh but below a peak of 27.15€/MWh from last week.
  • A colder than usual winter in Europe and Asia could see tighter supply next summer with potential for stock levels below 40% at the of winter according to Equinor this week. Sum 24 storage injections will be key for supply heading into Winter 2024.
    • TTF AUG 23 down -4.8% at 27.08€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 down -2.5% at 46.88€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -1.9% at 49.85€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -1.7% at 53.48€/MWh


Source: Bloomberg

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