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TTF Winter Premium Narrows on Israel De-Escalation Efforts

NATURAL GAS

The TTF 1Q24 premium over the front month has narrowed today following increased de-escalation efforts in the Middle East, with contracts further down the curve posting losses while the front of the curve is trading higher.

    • TTF NOV 23 up 0.5% at 49.5€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 down -0.8% at 54.28€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -0.9% at 52.42€/MWh
  • The 1Q24-Nov23 spread has come off to €4.62/MWh today, down from €6.4/MWh at the start of the week. Weather related shocks and potential supply disruptions continue to support the winter premium.
    • TTF Q124-NOV 23 down -0.6€/MWh at 4.85€/MWh
    • TTF Q125-TTF Q124 down -0.3€/MWh at 1.14€/MWh
  • Measures are ongoing to try and de-escalate the Middle East situation such as hostage negotiations which are limiting a ground offensive at present as well as limiting Hezbollah retaliation from Lebanon with its links to Iran.
  • US President Biden met with Saudi’s Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman Tuesday to help prevent the Israel-Hamas conflict from widening whilst indicating growing ties between the US and Saudi, which have largely been strained under Biden’s presidency after a request to the kingdom to produce more oil last year was snubbed.
Energy BulletsCommodities
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