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DOLLAR-PHP
DOLLAR-PHP: Tuesday saw Goldman Sachs note that they "think PHP should
outperform other NJA high-yield currencies, and we change our short-term FX
outlook from bearish to bullish. Coming into the year, we were bearish the PHP
on exp. that robust growth & ambitious infrastructure spending plans would lead
to more capital imports, thereby widening the current a/c deficit. However, with
consumption & investment likely to fall significantly given the impact of the
domestic lockdown, we are now forecasting the current a/c to turn into a surplus
this year. Meanwhile, the Philippines' debt/GDP is still relatively low, which
means they have fiscal space, although new fiscal stimulus is more likely to be
channeled more towards helping households & SMEs rather than infrastructure, in
our view. Lastly, foreign holdings in Philippines local debt & equity markets
are relatively low, and thus the key driver of the PHP is likely to be the
current a/c."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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