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TURKEY: BofA Continue to Expect First CBRT Rate Cut in December

TURKEY
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BofA note that the September inflation print did not change their baseline expectation for the first cut in December, but it changed their risk scenario from November to January, adding that they think that CBRT decision will depend on data. They note that if we do not see any more upward surprises in the data a first cut in December of 200-250bps is possible. If data continues to disappoint, we might see the first cut in 1Q next year. BofA see the policy rate at 30% at end of 2025.

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BofA note that the September inflation print did not change their baseline expectation for the first cut in December, but it changed their risk scenario from November to January, adding that they think that CBRT decision will depend on data. They note that if we do not see any more upward surprises in the data a first cut in December of 200-250bps is possible. If data continues to disappoint, we might see the first cut in 1Q next year. BofA see the policy rate at 30% at end of 2025.