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TURKEY: CPI Decelerates Less Than Anticipated Amid Surging Food Prices

TURKEY
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • Turkey’s consumer prices rose 47.1% y/y in November, losing pace from 48.6% in October but slightly above expectations (Est: 46.60%). Month-on-month, prices rose 2.24% (Est: 1.92%; Prior: 2.88%).
  • Among the sub-categories, food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed most to the monthly reading, rising 5.10% m/m in November. The CBRT did warn that “the impact of food prices on consumer inflation will remain prominent in November,” but the scale of food price gains are more than most sell-side analysts had accounted for.
  • While policymakers may interpret the fall in the headline figure as supportive of a rate cut in December, the stubborn month-on-month reading is likely to play a bigger role given that the central bank has stressed it needs to see a “significant and sustained decline in the underlying trend of monthly inflation”.
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  • Turkey’s consumer prices rose 47.1% y/y in November, losing pace from 48.6% in October but slightly above expectations (Est: 46.60%). Month-on-month, prices rose 2.24% (Est: 1.92%; Prior: 2.88%).
  • Among the sub-categories, food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed most to the monthly reading, rising 5.10% m/m in November. The CBRT did warn that “the impact of food prices on consumer inflation will remain prominent in November,” but the scale of food price gains are more than most sell-side analysts had accounted for.
  • While policymakers may interpret the fall in the headline figure as supportive of a rate cut in December, the stubborn month-on-month reading is likely to play a bigger role given that the central bank has stressed it needs to see a “significant and sustained decline in the underlying trend of monthly inflation”.