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TURKEY: Deutsche Bank See Strong Disinflation, Optimistic on Avoiding Recession

TURKEY
  • Speaking to Anadolu Agency, strategists at Deutsche Bank said “We see inflation at around 40% by year-end due to slowing domestic demand, base effects and the recent stability of the lira. We expect a strong disinflation process.”
  • They added that they do not believe the central bank will slash interest rates by more than 500bps by the year’s end.
  • Deutsche Bank’s economists forecast Turkey’s GDP growth at 3.5% this year, relative to an average growth rate of around 5% over the past five years. But they also note that growth is slowing, and that it will be a challenge in the last quarter of this year and early next year in the first quarter.
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