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TURKEY: Seasonally-Adjusted Inflation in Focus After Thursday CPI Miss

TURKEY
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  • Citi write that TRY's relative strength may be limiting inflows despite the shift at the CBRT to an orthodox approach to monetary policy. Citi compare TRY unfavourably to Egypt, who devalued their currency, achieving the required correction.
  • Separately, JPM write that the higher-than-expected TRY CPI data yesterday casts
    doubts about the efficacy of the current economic program, which may heighten political pressure on the economic team. Conversely, the CBRT may now have to adopt an even
    more resolute stance on FX. As a result, they expect to see state bank offers to be even more pronounced on the topside this month.
  • Erdogan is set to appear later today at a local technology festival, while the stats agency release seasonally adjusted inflation stats at 4pm local time (1400BST). The data may come under additional focus given the toppy inflation stats yesterday.
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  • Citi write that TRY's relative strength may be limiting inflows despite the shift at the CBRT to an orthodox approach to monetary policy. Citi compare TRY unfavourably to Egypt, who devalued their currency, achieving the required correction.
  • Separately, JPM write that the higher-than-expected TRY CPI data yesterday casts
    doubts about the efficacy of the current economic program, which may heighten political pressure on the economic team. Conversely, the CBRT may now have to adopt an even
    more resolute stance on FX. As a result, they expect to see state bank offers to be even more pronounced on the topside this month.
  • Erdogan is set to appear later today at a local technology festival, while the stats agency release seasonally adjusted inflation stats at 4pm local time (1400BST). The data may come under additional focus given the toppy inflation stats yesterday.