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Turkey Snapshot: Implied Vols Decline, Bist100 Challenges Key Resistance

TURKEY
  • Turkish USD bonds open on the front foot this week, while Locals remain more muted around the open.
  • USD curve maintains its bull steepening bias from last week: 2Y-6.6bp, 3Y -5.2bp, 5Y -3.5bp.
  • USD/TRY 1m Implied vol continues to decline, with price action now back to Feb levels (pre-Agbal's removal).
  • Risk premia, however, still remain elevated but on the decline: 5Y CDS trades -2.3bp today, at 3.93.81 but still well above March levels.
  • USD/TRY still looking for traction below Friday's low, pulled lower by broad-based dollar selling. 8.2046 & 8.1793 support below have proven sticky in recent weeks.
  • Bist 100 remains on the front foot (+1.19% today), having found support above 1,300 in mid-April.
  • Todays' price action has moved above key YTD resistance at 1,450 but will need to close above to maintain upside momentum (RSI still in bull mode at 61.53).


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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