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Turkish Economy Expands by a Stronger-Than-Expected 3.5% y/y in Q4-22

TURKEY
  • Turkey’s economy expanded 3.5% annually in the last quarter (Est. +2.9%), driven primarily by a surge in government and household spending, Bloomberg report. Household consumption grew 16.1% y/y while government spending on consumption rose 9%. CPI data is on the docket on Friday, where prices are expected to moderate slightly from 57.68% y/y to 55.70% y/y, largely on the back of base effects. Nevertheless, President Erdogan is likely to use the mechanical decline in inflation to claim victory over financial instability. These figures are politically-sensitive as Erdogan has prioritised economic growth ahead of the general elections expected in May/June.
  • The two deadly earthquakes are estimated to have cost $34.2b in physical damages, or about 4% of 2021 gross domestic product, according to a preliminary assessment by the World Bank. The World Bank have also revised its 2023 GDP forecast for Turkey down by half a percentage point from its initial 3.5%-4% estimate. Bloomberg Economics calculated that the quakes could shave off 1% of this year’s GDP, while JP Morgan said in a report that direct costs from the destruction of physical structures may reach $25 billion, or 2.5% of the country’s GDP. Oxford Economics said near-term disruptions to activity in the 10 provinces will alone shave off 0.3% to 0.4% of GDP.
  • While the Supreme Election Council has not yet announced whether the election date will be changed in the wake of the earthquake, they have sent a delegation to the quake zone to ensure that the elections can be held safely, Hurriyet report. Note the elections are likely to be held on either May 14 or June 18, with the opposition alliance set to name a unified contender after their meeting on March 2.
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