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Turkish Inflation Surprises to the Downside Following CBRT's April Peak Forecast

TURKEY
  • TURKEY APRIL PRODUCER PRICES RISE 4.34% M/M
  • TURKEY APRIL CONSUMER PRICES RISE 1.68% M/M; EST. +1.80%
  • TURKEY APRIL CONSUMER PRICES RISE 17.14% Y/Y
  • TURKEY APRIL PRODUCER PRICES RISE 35.17% Y/Y; EST. +33.10%
  • TURKEY CORE INFLATION AT 17.77% IN APRIL
  • This CPI print comes in well below estimations and follows comments from the CBRT that inflation has peaked in April
  • There is a broad consensus among the sell side that the CBRT will use this to justify the initiation of a premature easing cycle - some time around September.
  • However, they will likely be hamstrung by the commitment to keeping rates above inflation
  • Most sell-side also see inflation peaking closer to June in the 18-19% range which will be key to monitor in next month's data
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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