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Turnaround Tuesday, 10YY Sub 3%, Stocks Extend Late Highs

US TSYS

Turnaround Tuesday lives up to it's name. Except for yield curves that finished near lows, rates stronger after the bell, near late session highs on strong volumes (TYU2>1.2M) w/bonds unwinding Mon's weakness. Current 30YY 3.1319% after nearly tapping Mon's 3.2044% high overnight; 10YY back below 3.0% at 2.9828% vs. 3.0621% overnight high.

  • No specific driver for the reversal, trading desks say, though there are "big short positions per JPM survey .. while we usually rally through supply," on added, citing Tsy coupon auctions that start w/ $44B 3Y notes today.
  • "Today is a buy everything day," another quipped as stocks extended session highs late (ESM2 +34.5 at 4154.5; Gold +13.00 at 1854.43; WTI crude +1.60 at 120.10.
  • Treasury futures held gains after $44B 3Y note auction (91282CEU1) tailed: 2.927% high yield vs. 2.915% WI; 2.45x bid-to-cover vs. 2.59x last month.
  • No react to limited data: US APR TRADE GAP -$87.1B VS MAR -$107.7B, nor Consumer credit ($38.1B).
  • No react to Tsy Sec Yellen testimony to Committee on Finance, U.S. Senate, nothing really new as the former Fed chair touches upon supply constraints, chip shortages underpinning inflation. That said -- starting to see pick-up in stories suggesting global inflation may be topping out, Bbg citing semiconductor prices, spot rate for shipping containers and fertilizer prices plateauing.
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