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Twist Flatter Ahead Of Stacked Docket Headlined By Retail Sales

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade between 7bp cheaper and 1bp richer for a large twist flattening which has seen 2s10s fall to -22.5bps after yesterday’s high of -15bps marked fresh highs since late October.
  • The flattening started in Asia hours before continuing with stronger than expected UK CPI adding to yesterday’s surprise Canadian strength along with relatively hawkish ECB rhetoric vs market pricing.
  • TYH4 at 111-24 holds off earlier and yesterday’s lows of 111-22+ on solid cumulative volumes already clearing 400k. Support remains intact, seen at 111-06+ (Jan 5 low).
  • Today sees a plethora of economic releases, with retail sales to be watched closely for any downside surprises considering the sensitivity seen to last week’s softer PPI data. Attention should then turn to 20Y Tsy supply later in the session before the Fed’s Beige Book likely highlights today’s Fedspeak but with appearances worth being aware of in case of any surprises.
  • Data: Weekly MBA data (0700ET), Retail sales Dec (0830ET), ToT Dec (0830ET), NY Fed Services Jan (0830ET), IP & Cap Util Dec (0915ET), NAHB index Jan (1000ET) Business inventories Nov (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Gov Bowman (0900ET), VC Supervision Barr (0930ET), Fed Beige Book (1400ET), NY Fed’s Williams (1500ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $13.B 20Y Bond re-open (912810TW8) (1300ET)
  • Bills issuance: US Tsy $58M 17W bill auction (1130ET)
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