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Twist Steepening As 2s10s Pull Back From Inversion

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have twist steepened this morning as the curve pulls back from recent flats and the brief inversion for 2s10s yesterday for the first time since Sep-2019, now back up at 9bps.
  • The move appears led by a trimming of rate hike expectations (but still north of 200bps priced over the next six meeting) which has helped see the front-end rally off recent lows and longer end more than unwind an earlier rally.
  • 2YY -4bps at 2.324%, 5YY -1.7bps 2.482%, 10YY +1.3bps at 2.407%, 30YY +2.9bps at 2.530%.
  • TYM2 sits only 2 ticks lower at 122-08+ after a round trip to 122-26+ overnight, which now forms new resistance, clearance of which could open 123-12 (Mar 23 high). Modestly above average volumes.
  • Fedspeak: Barkin, 2024 voter (0830ET) and George, 2022 (1300ET).
  • Data: The pick today is ADP employment for Mar (0815ET) plus the third release for quarterly GDP/PCE (0830ET).
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $30B 119D bill auction (1130ET).
  • No bond issuance today after 2Y (tailed), 5Y (traded through) and 7Y (tailed) sales so far this week.
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