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Twist Steepening As Long End Catches Up

US TSYS
  • Cash Treasuries have seen a twist steepening for much of today with 2Y yields down -2.4bps and the long end up +3-5bps.
  • This has been tempered by the recent 7Y auction, which stopped through after two note auction tails yesterday, although there has since been some steepening, especially in 5s/30s space, possibly on short cover/hedge unwinds.
  • 2Y yield -2.4bps at 0.606%, 10Y +2.9bps at 1.653% and 30Y +4.9bps at 2.011%. That sees the 2s/10s spread return to yesterday's narrow range, still relatively flat but off post-January lows from early this morning.
  • Busy data schedule tomorrow including core PCE/incomes and durable goods for Oct. There was no reaction to today's US flash PMI.
  • Other events of note: Biden speaking shortly on economy/inflation (1400ET/1900GMT) and Fed minutes tomorrow (1400ET).
  • Heavy supply schedule continues, short-end focused: Tsy $10B 4W and $25B 8W bill auctions at 1000ET before Tsy $60B 14D and $40B 119D bill CMB auctions at 1130ET.
  • Next scheduled NY Fed purchases: TIPS 7.5Y-30Y, appr $1.075B (1100-1120ET) - delayed from today on technical issues.
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