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Twist Steepening Evident On Monday

US TSYS

T-Notes +0-05 at 133-11 in early Asia-Pac trade. The contract recovered into the bell on Monday after failing to push below 133-00 in early NY trade, with the intraday range much more confined vs. Thursday & Friday of last week. Twist steepening was evident on the curve throughout Monday's session, with the belly outperforming as 5s ended the day 3.5bp richer, while 30s were ~4.0bp cheaper.

  • A heavy corporate issuance slated weighed on longer-dated swap spreads.
  • Comments from Fed Governor Brainard provided a sporadic, albeit short lived, round of support for the space during the NY morning, as she noted that valuations are elevated in a number of asset classes.
  • Elsewhere, 2021 FOMC voter Barkin played down any worries re: the recent uptick in longer dated Tsy yields, noting that he would be disappointed if we didn't see yields rise as the outlook improves.
  • The latest ISM m'fing survey was firmer than expected.
  • Elsewhere, a note from Bank of America did the rounds suggesting that the Fed should promote a twist flattening of the yield curve via "a simultaneous selling of U.S. front end Treasuries & buying of longer-dated Treasuries." They suggested that this "is the perfect policy prescription for the Fed, in our view. Twist kills 3 birds with one stone: it pulls up front end rates, it stabilizes back end rates, and it does so in a reserve neutral way that lessens bank SLR pressure to hold more capital."
  • The RBA decision headlines the regional Asia-Pac docket on Tuesday, with communique surrounding the Bank's bond purchases front and centre.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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