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Twist Steeper As Front End Pares Some Of Retail Sales Losses

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade twist steeper, ranging from 4bp richer to 2bp cheaper with the pivot after 10s.
  • The front-end chips away at yesterday’s shunt higher in Fed rate expectations after strong retail sales, but the longer-end is less willing to move give up the steepening theme seen in recent weeks. There is also further 20Y supply ahead today plus a stacked earnings docket including Tesla, Procter & Gamble, Morgan Stanley, Netflix, Abbot Laboratories & Elevance Health.
  • It’s a move that pushes 2s10s back up to -35bps, the higher end of yesterday’s wide range of -32bps to -40bps.
  • TYZ3 has lifted to session highs of 106-14 (+7), helped by latest flow including a suggested block buyer for 4k at 106-11. It earlier extended recent lows with 106-03 to push through support at 106-03+ (Oct 4/17 low) after which sits the round 106-00 before 105-05+ (2% 10-dma envelope).
  • Ahead sees housing data but with the second half of the session providing a greater focal point with six different Fedspeakers including four permanent voters (all before Powell speaks tomorrow), which likely take precedence over the Fed’s Beige Book.
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $13B 20Y bond re-open (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $56B 17-week bills (1130ET)
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